| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | SHORT | The US economy is running at 2-3% growth with core PCE near 3%. Fiscal deficits are 7-8% of GDP. If the Fed cuts rates 3 times (bowing to pressure) while growth remains at 3%, inflation expectations will unanchor. Bond vigilantes will punish the long end. SHORT Long Duration Bonds (Expect higher yields on the 10Y/30Y). A sudden recession crushes growth and yields simultaneously. | ||
| Feb 16, 2026 | LONG | Germany and Europe are massively increasing infrastructure and defense spending (NATO targets). Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is forced to re-arm. This spending is "sticky" and government-mandated, providing a floor for European defense contractors. LONG European Defense. Geopolitical de-escalation (unlikely in near term). |